CHEAP-TO-TRUTH · DRUG DEVELOPMENT DILIGENCE

Do not spend $10M to learn what $500k could have told you.

The useful question is not “Is this a good drug?” It is: what is the cheapest credible experiment that can change the decision?

24 scored dimensions 4 hard gates 1 question: cheapest credible path to truth
THE OPERATING IDEA

Most money is committed before the next question is defined tightly enough.

Drug development can become a stack of inherited assumptions: customary CRO scope, customary sites, customary geographies, customary visits, customary endpoints, customary budgets.

Cheap-to-Truth works backward from the decision. What evidence would make us continue, stop, license, redesign or walk away? Then we hunt for the smallest valid path to that evidence.

Cheap does not beat valid. Fast does not beat safe. Safety, scientific validity, rights clarity and regulator usability are hard gates.

MEGA OBZ · LIVE DEMO

The Cheap-to-Truth Opportunity Machine

Score an asset + indication. Change the assumptions. Watch the opportunity change. This demo is synthetic and deterministic. UNKNOWN stays UNKNOWN.

OPPORTUNITY SCORE 0 /100
CHEAP-TO-TRUTH 0 /100
HARD GATE PASS
Time to useful readout-
Trial complexity-
Suggested next path-
Biggest weak link-
DimensionScoreWhy it matters

This demo does not research the asset. Real diligence replaces assumptions with sourced evidence, documents uncertainty and red-teams the conclusion.

THE 24-DIMENSION LENS

Headline TAM is not enough. Headline trial cost is not enough.

START HERE

Cheap-to-Truth Diligence Sprint

$4,950 one time

One asset + one indication. A bounded, decision-oriented diligence sprint. The deliverable is not a pile of research. It is an argument you can attack.

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After payment, scope and kickoff are confirmed before substantive work begins. If the requested scope materially exceeds this offer, we will resolve it before starting.

What you get

  • Evidence mapWhat is known, inferred, conflicting and UNKNOWN.
  • Hard-gate screenSafety, rights, scientific validity and regulator usability.
  • Asset + indication scorecardCommercial attractiveness without letting TAM hide development friction.
  • Trial-to-truth sketchThe smallest credible experiment likely to change the decision.
  • Geography screenWhere cost, startup, patient access and data usability may combine best.
  • Cost + time modelA transparent range with assumptions, not fake precision.
  • Red-team memoWhy the thesis may be wrong and what evidence would change the call.
  • Decision memoProceed, investigate, redesign or walk away, with the next evidence step.
IF THE DILIGENCE SURVIVES

There are two bigger plays.

02

Success-based sourcing

We can help search for stranded, shelved or under-resourced assets that fit a defined Cheap-to-Truth thesis, then help make the owner, rights and trial economics legible.

Any sourcing fee, success fee or contingent compensation is negotiated separately in writing before work begins.

Discuss a sourcing mandate →
03

Virtual biotech

For the rare opportunity where the asset, rights, evidence and capital all line up, the diligence machine can become an operating machine: one lean program, explicit gates, outsourced specialist execution, and capital released only against evidence.

This is a negotiated operating structure, not an offer of securities and not part of the $4,950 checkout.

Discuss a build →
WHAT THIS IS NOT

No optimism theater.

Not a CRO quote. We are interrogating whether the inherited trial structure deserves to exist.

Not a clinical recommendation. This is research and strategic diligence, not patient care.

Not investment advice. Commercial upside is one variable, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Not a regulatory guarantee. A regulator decides what evidence it accepts.

Not “AI says so.” The work must be inspectable, sourced and able to survive a hostile read.

Not certainty laundering. UNKNOWN remains UNKNOWN until evidence changes it.

THE WIDER MACHINE

Research becomes more useful when the next action is connected.

Know somebody sitting on a stranded asset?Send them this page. If the science is interesting but the conventional development economics are ugly, that is exactly the point.
FAQ
What kinds of assets fit best?

Often: prior human data, a plausible mechanism, a common or reachable population, an objective or fast endpoint, tolerable safety, manageable dosing and a realistic rights path. But the machine is built to expose exceptions rather than enforce a single template.

Do you need an existing protocol?

No. The sprint can start from an asset + indication thesis. If a protocol exists, it becomes evidence to interrogate rather than an untouchable starting assumption.

Can you guarantee a cheaper trial?

No. The purpose is to find and test the cost structure before capital is committed. Some programs are expensive because the science genuinely requires it.

What happens after checkout?

We confirm the asset, indication, question to be answered, available source material, conflicts and scope. Then the diligence begins.